EVENTS
第46回PoPセミナー：原子力発電所における大規模事故リスクの評価のためのベイズ及び非ベイズ法
基本情報
| 区分 | 講演会等 |
|---|---|
| 対象者 | 社会人・一般 / 在学生 / 留学生 / 卒業生 / 企業 / 大学生 |
| 開催日（開催期間） | 2016年6月10日 10時 — 11時30分 |
| 開催場所 | 本郷地区 |
| 会場 | 経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）第2セミナー室 |
| 定員 | 50名 |
| 参加費 |
無料
|
| 申込方法 | 要事前申込 |
| お問い合わせ先 | STIG教育プログラム事務局 STIG@pp.u-tokyo.ac.jp |
【本講演は英語で行われます。通訳はつきません】
概要：
How do past observations inform us of the future risks of major nuclear accidents? How did the catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant change the expected frequency for such events? There has been little consensus in answering these questions. While opponents of nuclear power claim that the probability of a serious accident is very high, the industry ensures that it is negligible. Furthermore, when facing such ambiguity, or multiple sources of information, how should policy-makers behave regarding these rare but catastrophic risks? The aim of the presentation is to present two methods developed in CERNA-Mines ParisTech that try to shed light on these questions. We will first present a Bayesian method which tries to determine the effect of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident on the probability of witnessing future major nuclear accidents. Second, we will present a non-Bayesian method which tries to account for the ambiguity that characterizes the risks of nuclear power accidents.
