In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves across the world. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida remarked, “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow.” China has not ruled out the possibility of using force to unify Taiwan, and the United States views the next decade as decisive in its hegemonic competition with China. Meanwhile, Russia has aligned itself not only with China but also with nations such as Iran and North Korea, and instability in the Middle East is growing. Today, the world faces a more imminent threat of war.
 
Economic globalization underpinned by the long period of peace is now rapidly changing course. Dual-use technologies—those applicable to both military and civilian domains—are transforming modern warfare. How can we prevent such technologies from falling into the hands of nations of concern? Also, the experience of supply chain vulnerabilities caused by the pandemic, as well as economic hardships caused by hostile measures such as halting trade to exert pressure, has raised awareness of the need to bolster supply chains resilience, secure domestic production of key materials, and reduce dependency on countries that engage in economic coercion. As countries scramble to manage these risks, the global free trade system has come under increasing strain.
 
This book explores the strategies Japan, as a nation that has thrived on trade, should adopt to help rebuild a stable and prosperous global trade order. Drawing on insights from the Asia Pacific Initiative’s CPTPP Project, which was chaired by the author and brought together experts in U.S. and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, international economic law, international political economy, security, and Japan’s diplomatic and business relations with China, the book considers the best paths forward.
 
Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, launched by the U.S., involved overcoming divisive domestic debate and navigating difficult negotiations. Following the U.S. withdrawal under the Trump administration, Japan played a pivotal role in bringing together the remaining 11 countries to form the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This project was initially born from the question of how to strategically utilize the CPTPP, a critical agreement that Japan helped shape. However, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began during the study group’s discussions, the author broadened the scope and continuously revised the manuscript as the situation evolved rapidly.
 
The book outlines five key trade strategies Japan should pursue: 1) promoting the rule of law, 2) maintaining the high standards of the CPTPP, 3) countering economic coercion, 4) strengthening cooperation between the CPTPP and the European Union (EU), and 5) ensuring continued U.S. engagement in Asia. On the domestic front, the book emphasizes the need for Japan to bolster its national strength, which forms the foundation for implementing these trade strategies. The analysis also covers key contextual factors such as the U.S.-China rivalry, Japan’s evolving trade policies, the instability of the international trade order, the internal challenges that have hindered the U.S. from concluding new trade agreements, and China’s strategic aims in applying to join the CPTPP.
 
Although the international environment has grown more severe with the passing of time, the relevance of this book remains unchanged, as the basic structure of the U.S.-China rivalry endures. The book will provide readers with the broader perspective needed to consider Japan’s future strategies.
 

(Written by MUNAKATA Naoko, Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy / 2024)

Related Info

CPTPP Project:
Asia Pacific Initiative
https://apinitiative.org/en/project/cptpp/
 
Column:
AJISS-Commentary: Navigating through Turbulence: Taking a Multi-track Approach to Safeguard the Rules-based Order  (JIIA – The Japan Institute of International Affairs  March 19, 2024)
https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/ajiss_commentary/navigating-through-turbulence.html

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